Earl Coming To Downeast Maine?

Probably not, but maybe. Most of the models for Hurricane Earl show it curving and sliding up the east coast of the US before crashing into Nova Scotia at Category 1 strength, and this is probably the most likely course. However, the HWRF model actually currently has Hurricane Earl taking a decidedly more easterly path, and has it hitting pretty much dead on with Mount Desert Island (the purple line in the map below).

Still, according to the NWS in Caribou, it probably isn’t too much of a threat:

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/…
primary feature this at beginning of period is Hurricane Earl expected to be near Cape Hatteras. Consensus track is to move Earl northeast passing southeast of Nova Scotia Saturday morning. This will put coastal waters and southern portion of forecast area on northwest edge of system Friday night. A strong upper level trough is moving across the Great Lakes towards New England as Earl moves northeastward from Carolinas late Friday. The strength and timing of this trough will determine the track of Earl. For now will assume consensus model track.

Assuming that Earl takes this “consensus track” (which is effectively where all the other colored lines point on the map above), we will quite likely see some dangerous surf (no going to Thunder Hole this year, please people) and we will probably get some heavy rain, but not much else. There are apparently other conditions which will help to hold down the storm surge and minimize coastal flooding. Plus, forecasting this far out is certainly much more of an art than a science. According to the National Weather Service from yesterday, the “average error” for this far out is a 200-300 mile radius. It has probably firmed up somewhat over the last 24 hours, but not by enough to be sure of anything.

Still… That one purple line pointing directly at us is a bit disconcerting. Of course, it would be even more disconcerting to be on the Carolina, Virginia, Jersey, or Maryland shore. Even though it is still predicted to stay offshore, it is still forecasted to be a big, powerful Category 3 storm just right off the coast. And it could, of course, zig-zag at the last moment with little warning.