Earl Looking Like Less of a Threat to Downeast Maine

The latest tracking picture looks much better for us here in Hancock County, and really the whole eastern United States. Most of the latest models have the hurricane tracking further offshore before hitting Nova Scotia Saturday morning.

Now the NOAA GFDL model (which, if nothing else, has a much better website than the HWRF one from yesterday) shows it swinging eastward, and shows it tracking directly into South Carolina before rampaging up the coast (if this is the case though, it will just be a big rainstorm by the time it gets here). But the rest of the models all now generally agree on a track similar to the consensus model from yesterday (but actually a bit more offshore, it appears). There were also some predictions yesterday that the storm may have been slowing down a bit, which could have prolonged the impact even if it stays offshore, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. The current consensus forecast still shows the storm hitting Nova Scotia around 8am on Saturday morning.

So, we’re not completely safe from it yet, but that is good news! I have a wedding and a camping trip to deal with this weekend, and a big hurricane would have put a damper on that adventure for sure!

One little note though, the NWS report for today does include this:

Hazardous surf: assuming model consensus track of Earl primary concern will be large long period waves reaching coast. This will hazardous for spectators watching the surf. Long period waves become much taller in the surf zone and can catch spectators off guard possibly washing then into the surf.

Let’s not have a replay of Hurricane Bill from last year, okay? That’s one anniversary we could do without observing.