iPad 2 Predictions for Tomorrow

Posted by on 2011-03-02 in Computing

Putting it on the line:

  • Improved, anti-glare, scratch-resistant IPS screen at 1024×768 (same resolution as iPad 1). They may make a big deal about improved color performance.
  • Dual-core A5 CPU at (roughly) 1.2GHz based on Cortex A9 ARM, with improved graphics
  • 512MB RAM
  • 16GB/32GB/64GB
  • Improved external speaker, and maybe microphone improvements mentioned too
  • Front and rear cameras, but I think the front camera will be the high-res HD-capable one. The rear camera, if it exists, will be a lower-quality one similar to the iPhone 4′s front camera
  • No on-board USB port or SD card slot, but they might include a “camera connection” dock-connector in the box which includes both (satisfying EU). If I’m wrong and they do build something in, it’ll be the SD card slot, not the micro-USB.
  • Thinner and lighter, of course.
  • Gyroscope like the iPhone 4.
  • And this is really a leap, but I’m going to go with a single model capable of both GSM and CDMA rather than two separate models. No LTE, since these networks aren’t “ready yet” (in Apple’s opinion), but they might fully support HSPA+ this time around.

So that’s all I’m willing to say I’m actually “predicting”. I have other ideas, but they’re much hazier. Follow me after the jump to see the rest.

For example, I think it is possible that they’ll continue shipments of the previous gen iPad 16GB Wifi at a $100 lower price point, but probably not. While this is conceivable now, I think it is much more likely that they’ll wait and do this with the next iPad revision instead. I generally agree with John Gruber: Apple intends to ship an updated iPad 3 (perhaps not named that, though) this year in time for the Q4 spending orgy. This “iPad 3″ might be announced at the September-ish iPod event as the “One More Thing,” but I think that is probably still up in the air. Either way, they’ll try to align these two events closer so that next time (2012), they can unite the launch events. For the iPad 3 launch, I expect that they’ll replace the 32 and 64GB models of the iPad 2 with a new version, but keep selling the 16GB iPad 2 at a reduced price. I actually suspect that they’ll shift the price of the whole product line down, essentially “replacing” the iPad 2 16GB version with the iPad 3 32GB version, and selling the “old” model at around $100 off (iPhone 3G/3GS style). The new iPad 3 will have the Retina Display and maybe even LTE support.

I think that one of the reasons they’ll wait for the iPad 3 to introduce the “cheaper last year’s model” system, other than the “Apple likes money” reason of course, relates to the CDMA/GSM chip. I’m betting they don’t want to keep selling the iPad 1 because it is GSM-only, and they want their entire iPad line to be compatible with both systems. If so, they can’t do the 3G/3GS price trick this time around, just like you couldn’t do it with the original iPhone to iPhone 3G transition. It’ll make a bigger splash closer to Christmas anyway.

And that brings us to what I’m most curious about… The data pricing and flexibility. If the iPad 2 can actually use either GSM or CDMA on a single model, rather selling than two separate network-locked versions, how will this work? Will you still be able to turn data on a month-at-a-time like you can with the current GSM iPad? And if so, will they become “locked” to the carrier on activation, or will you be able to swap between the carriers depending on who offers you the better deal and better coverage at the time? Could this be the start of the first real competition between the major US carriers for data pricing?

I think it is clear that this is what Apple would prefer. Apple does not like the carriers’ business models, and does not like carrier lock-in, but those reasons are just icing on the cake. The real reason is, as with almost everything Apple, control. They don’t want the carriers to wield this much control over their product line, especially not the iPad (which is ever-so-slightly more computer than phone-like-device). As John Gruber recently put brilliantly, if something is good for both Apple and for Apple’s users, then don’t bet against them doing it, everyone else be damned. Apple will want to sell data access directly through the iTunes Store just like they sell subscriptions and content, and make it “simple” to get bandwidth for your device.

But I don’t know if they’ll pull it off. If it even happens at all this time around, it will be a first baby-step, not a giant revolution. My guess is that the iPad 2 will be able to use both network types, and you’ll be able to switch from one network to the other and keep your device, but the networks will still have the ability to do things like charge Activation Fees (which will screw up à la carte month-by-month competition). Verizon will, and AT&T won’t.